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Why what the democrates are doing is not the same

 

The stimulus bill that just passed congress is nothing like what George Bush tried to do and failed (by listening to a man who had wall streets interests in mind not the president he was sworn to serve). Mr. Paulson was right when he argued that we must secure the financial system. The saving of CitiGroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wachovia and et al was to stop any run on the banking system which also included local banks, savings and credit unions. The execution of the rescue left a lot to be desired (the understatement of the millennium) when almost a trillion dollars was asked for and given and then stolen. YES STOLEN. The people who helped bring about the end of true capitalism was given money and told I don’t care what you do with it. So Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sacks, Bear Sterns gave themselves a much needed rest in Las Vegas to unwind from loosing, or squandered, or stole (you pick the adjective). It must have been exhausting bankrupting their companies and paying them with your money. I beg you to tell your friends who support this destruction of sanity that President Bush didn’t start the move to socialism. He tried to save you. He tried to protect your country. Why do I say this? I will tell you.

When the subprime mortgage meltdown started and banks with CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligations) MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) and a half dozen other alphabet securities lost all of their value (partial due to an accounting rule). Can you imagine 25 trillion dollars in total security obligations and debt was caused by an accounting rule? It is true. The rule is called mark-to market. It is an accounting rule that tells holders of asset backed securities that it is better to price at what the current market value is not what you bought it at (FAS 157). The rule, in a nut shell, tells holders of these securities can inflate the value when the price goes up (creating a better balance sheet then what is true) and when the value goes down, maybe a year or six months later, you now have to scramble to find cash to replace the lost value of the asset. If you are leveraged on these assets 60:1 that is nearly (is) impossible (the people who could give you the money doesn’t believe you balance sheet anymore). The point I am making is that if the accounting rule was historical costs (what you bought it at) and since most of the assets are backed by houses, apartment complexes, and even office buildings that are paying their mortgages (95%) and income is coming in the historical costs was adequate. The second point is that most of these assets were booked for long term investments not available for sale (even if they were then changing them to held-to-maturity for the duration of the crisis) and then when there is a market for them petitioning the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to sell them. A better way to fix the financial system and the only money mentioned was the amount in total nationwide investment debt. The uptick rule is another matter it just means that a short sale (betting a stock will go lower) can only be instigated after the stock is bid higher.

Enter President Bush who desperately wanted to stop the collapse so he allowed himself to be snookered by Paulson, Bernake, and Geitner to do this 750bn dollar boondoggle. What he wanted to do was right. He wanted to protect you deposits. The banks I mentioned earlier carry about 40% of the US populations deposits. I just took BofA, Wells Fargo, and Citibank to highlight the difference in cash the banks have on hand to pay checks, close accounts and meet ongoing customer’s payrolls. The amounts are staggering to the untrained eye more in a minute).      

amounts in millions

       Bank      

    Deposit

 Cash in Bank

Bank of America

805,177

43,704

Wells Fargo

239,178

11,806

CitiBank

826,000

38,206

1,870,355

93,716

The amount of deposits (book value not actual amounts in the bank) for three of the major banks in this country is almost two trillion dollars. The amounts the banks have to meet day to day operations is less that one hundred billion dollars. The information I just gave you the President had the same information on the other 4,997 commercial and savings banks, and credit unions maybe another 10 trillion dollars of deposits with less than 1 trillion dollars in cash on hand. The FDIC could not print or back even ? of that amount. That boys and girls would be a depression. What would you do? President Bush was not is not and will never be a socialist not even close. The only thing President Bush was was naive to trust Hank Paulson and Ben Bernake. I don’t care how many books the Fed Chairman read. Many people argue that maybe about 300 billion would be needed to back stop some of the assets till a buyer could be found (a year maybe two) for them. How is that idea socialism. I think alot of Sean, Rush, and Glenn, but this time I believe they are wrong about this.

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A New Begining for 2009

   

I have been away for a while, partly because of the holidays and partly because I didn’t want to come across as whining or infantile. I did not vote for Mr. Obama. My candidate was Mike Huckabee or Fred Thompson. I think Mayor Giuliani would have made a great Attorney General or Secretary of Homeland Security (If we have to have the stupid agency). John McCain came out the winner of our primary (some day I will go into that process), because the conservative movement fractured into 10 different factions. People in our caucus found fault with all of the nominees. John McCain has an impressive background and could have made a great Secretary of State or Defense. He is a war hero a true conservative on some very key issues like abortion, the war, and traditional marriage. He lost because he did three things wrong and only one thing right. He didn’t come up with a clear conservative message to the economic crisis, he touted “working across the isle (First Amendment, federal judges to the Appeals Bench), and didn’t bring up Wright, Ayres, and Rezko. The one thing he did right was pick Sarah Palin as his Vice-President nominee.

The issues of Wright and Ayres, while important, were secondary to the issues this country was facing. The economy and two wars and the looming issue of Vladimir Putin invading the independent Georgian state. If you understand the economy more than just what you are told on the Fox Business Channel the problem of banks and financial companies like Merrill Lynch, Bear Sterns, or even AIG could have been meliorated with just a few accounting rules and loan guarantees to back stop the difference would have stabilized the credit markets. The looming recession is a different mess altogether. The current President will take this country in a totally different direction and blame the former President. He will say “you can’t blame me” “I am doing what President Bush did.” The argument is both specious and incorrect. President Bush did the right thing the wrong way. The proverbial right church wrong pew aspect of the problem will be misinterpreted for a long time. Sean Hannity, in interviewing Rush Limbaugh, put a handle on this issue when talking about FDR and his legacy. It is my contention that FDR was one of the worst Presidents of the 20th century.

I, as a banker, can tell you that while it is true that ACORN and other surrogates intimidated some banks to make these criminal loans. Loans, that financially devastated the poor for 10 years and maybe longer. The other banks didn’t care one way or the other. The American Bankers Association lobbied congress (Republican congress) to repeal Glass/Steagal. Glass/Steagal came out of the depression. Congress with the help of President Clinton reassured in the old way of banking (supposedly under the guise of competing with Europe) gave bankers the go-ahead to turn the banking system into a used car lot type of business. From that date if you wanted to work in an bank all you needed was proof that you can sell something. If you can convince the HR person you could make good money in commissions for selling loans or savings accounts. A bank isn’t in business to provide commissions to its employees like Raymond James or First Investors Company. A bank is in business to promote commerce in their communities. A Commercial Banks prime mission is to help companies carry on trade and commerce. If the employees want a checking account at the same bank then “all the better”, but the bank caters to the business. How do I know I am right? Look at the mess we are in today with the repeal of Glass/Steagal.

In the next 1,458 days Mr. Obama will be the President. It should be very easy to predict how he will govern. In the first 3 days the President has reversed everything that kept America safe for 2,688 days (from September 11, 2001 to January 20, 2009). It is irrelevant weather he will do it in 1 year or 4 years. The point is that he did it publicly. President Bush on many occasions said he wish he could close Gitmo. The difference was that Bush did it quietly so our enemy was kept guessing. As of this writing, the President will overturn Reagan’s, Bush 41, and Bush 43, ban on NGO’s (Non-Governmental Organizations) from giving advice about abortion in foreign countries. Governing from the middle? I don’t think so. It is unclear at this early date, but the whole Gays in the military will come up again. The worst of all, in my humble opinion, is the issue of gay marriage. California may set the stage for Obama to put this issue forward claiming that California did it and every marriage didn’t collapse. I think it was Bill O’Reilly or Dick Morris on The O’Reilly Factor that argued that if Prop 8 is overturned again by the Court could make most religious services or openly praising God in public could cause criminal prosecution for hate speech. It is a idea that I didn’t think of. Court hearings on the bible and the Oath swearing to God be taken out of the Presidential Oath of Office.

What did Betty Davis say in “All About Eve”; “Fasten your seatbelt it is going to be a bumpy night.” In the coming weeks and months I will pick a topic on the economy, banking, pop culture (music, movies) the state of our youth (utes to Vinnie La Guardia Gambini), and finally I will comment on the Culture Warriors segments on O’Reilly’s show.

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